The Accuracy of Single Progesterone, Single β-hCG, and Their Combination Measurement in Predicting Early Miscarriage: A Prospective Study in Outpatient Setting


Introduction: Most of miscarriage events occurred during the first trimester of pregnancy. Recent studies found the beneficial effects of maternal serum markers to predict pregnancy outcomes. However, study in Indonesian setting was still limited, especially in outpatient setting. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum progesterone and β-hCG measurement  as a beneficial predictor of miscarriage.

Materials & Methods: This was a prospective study recruiting outpatients pregnant women in Aceh who seek first medical attention for their pregnancy during January 2013 to January 2015. Serum progesterone and β-hCG level were measured beside routine obstetric procedure. The discrimination attained between miscarriage and non-miscarriage groups of pregnant women at the end of first trimester was evaluated using logistic regression and receiver operating curve analysis.

Results: Among 70 pregnant recruited in this study, nineteen of them (27.1%) experienced miscarriage. Serum progesterone level of women in miscarriage group was lower than non-miscarriage group (17.85 (IQR 13.26-21.15) ng/dl vs 33.67 (IQR 21.83-44.14), p<0.001). Serum β-hCG level was also lower in miscarriage group (10 681 (IQR 5 787.5-26 577.5) mIU/ml vs 48 109 (IQR 17 137-93 915) mIU/ml, p=0.001). Single progesterone measurement gave a good predictor ability for miscarriage with 82.2% accuracy, 86.3% sensitivity and 73.7% specificity if 19.5 ng/dl was used as a cut-off point.

Conclusion: Maternal serum progesterone level could be a good predictor for miscarriage during the first trimester of pregnancy. Single β-hCG serum in combination with progesterone serum measurement only had little added value for predicting miscarriage.